By Anthony Hall, Public Health Intelligence Officer – Anthony.Hall@southtyneside.gov.uk
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South Tyneside’s Population Is Higher Than Expected
The latest mid-year population estimates show that South Tyneside is growing faster than expected.
The new figures are higher than the 2022-based population projections. This is true across all main age groups.
In mid-2025, South Tyneside had an estimated population of 151,255 people. The projected population was 150,174. This means there were 1,081 more residents than expected. This change has happened only three years after the baseline year for the projection.
The Office for National Statistics also updated the population estimates for 2022 to 2024. These changes followed updates to international migration data. The 2024 estimate went down by 657 people, from 151,393 to 150,736. The 2022 and 2023 estimates also went down by smaller amounts. Even so, the population is still growing. South Tyneside has gained more than 3,300 residents since 2021.
The difference between the estimate and the projection can be seen in all age groups. The biggest difference is among children and young people. In 2025, there were an estimated 33,310 people aged 0 to 19. This was 593 more than projected. This makes up more than half of the total difference. It suggests that growth among younger residents has been stronger than expected.
The working-age population is also higher than expected. This group includes people aged 20 to 64. In 2025, the estimate was 84,723. This was 358 more than projected. This is important because earlier projections often expected the working-age population to fall over time. Recent estimates show it is still growing.
The difference is smaller for people aged 65 and over, but it is still positive. In 2025, there were an estimated 33,222 residents in this age group. This was 130 more than projected. This shows that the older population is also growing a little faster than expected.
Migration has been the main reason for recent population growth. Between 2024 and 2025, there were more deaths than births. This caused a natural decrease of 469 people. But migration more than made up for this. Net internal migration added 303 residents. Net international migration added 659 residents.
Population projections are still useful for long-term planning. But the latest estimates show that future population change is hard to predict. South Tyneside is now growing faster than expected, especially among younger and working-age residents. If this continues, future projections may need to show a larger population than currently expected.
Sources
Population estimates for England and Wales – Office for National Statistics
Subnational population projections: 2022-based – Office for National Statistics