Understanding Population Projection Variance in South Tyneside 

By Anthony Hall, Public Health Intelligence Officer 

Introduction 

Population projections at the sub-national level are essential tools for planning across sectors like health, education, housing, and employment. These projections estimate what the population might look like in the future—sometimes up to 25 years ahead—and are typically updated every two years. However, there was a notable gap in releases between 2018 and 2022.

Because projections are based on the most recent population estimates, and those estimates themselves can be revised (especially following major events like the Census), there can be significant variation between different projection releases. 

Data Sources 

This analysis draws on population estimates and projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), including:
– Mid-year estimates from 2022 to 2024
– Revised estimates from 2012 to 2020
– Population projections based on data from 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2022 

Impact of Census 2021 

Following the 2021 Census, population estimates were revised. These revisions have been incorporated into the updated tables. For example, in South Tyneside, the revised estimates show a consistent downward adjustment compared to the original figures. 

Table 1: Comparison between original and revised mid-year estimates for South Tyneside 

Year	Original Estimate	Revised Estimate	Variance
2012	148,311	147,761	-550
2013	148,384	147,517	-867
2014	148,572	147,606	-966
2015	148,495	147,230	-1,265
2016	149,194	147,664	-1,530
2017	149,555	147,796	-1,759
2018	150,265	148,076	-2,189
2019	150,976	148,368	-2,608
2020	151,133	147,919	-3,214

Variation in Population Projections 

All Ages 

Since the 2011 Census, five different population projections have been released. These show a variation of over 6,000 people in South Tyneside’s projected population by 2037. The latest projection (2022-based) suggests an increase of just over 5,000 people between 2022 and 2037. Interestingly, the post-2022 population estimates are already 1,600 higher than the projection. 

Table 2: Projected population – baseline to 2037 

Projection	Baseline	2037	Change
2012	148,400	156,600	8,200
2014	148,700	155,000	6,300
2016	149,200	151,800	2,600
2018	150,265	157,909	7,644
2022	148,608	153,676	5,068

Ages 0–19 

The 2022 projection showed a sharper decline in the 0–19 age group than previous releases. However, mid-year estimates from 2023 and 2024 suggest stronger growth than projected—an increase of 800 people in this age group, which accounts for about half of the overall population growth. 

Table 3: Projected population – baseline to 2037 (ages 0–19) 

Projection	Baseline	2037	Change
2012	33,200	32,400	-800
2014	32,900	32,400	-500
2016	32,800	31,700	-1,100
2018	32,988	32,844	-144
2022	32,733	29,261	-3,472

Ages 20–64 

The 2022 projection marks a shift, showing an increase in the working-age population. Between 2022 and 2037, this group is expected to grow by over 1,200 people. The 2024 mid-year estimate already shows 800 more people than projected. 

Table 4: Projected population – baseline to 2037 (ages 20–64) 

Projection	Baseline	2037	Change
2012	87,600	81,200	-6,400
2014	87,100	80,300	-6,800
2016	86,900	78,800	-8,100
2018	87,242	84,616	-2,626
2022	84,359	85,600	1,241

Ages 65+ 

Older age groups continue to grow, though the 2022 projection shows a slower rate than previous releases. Between 2022 and 2037, the 65+ population is expected to increase by 7,300 people. The latest population estimate aligns closely with this projection. 

Table 5: Projected population – baseline to 2037 (ages 65+) 

Projection	Baseline	2037	Change
2012	27,700	42,900	15,200
2014	28,800	42,400	13,600
2016	29,500	41,500	12,000
2018	30,035	40,450	10,415
2022	31,516	38,816	7,300

Regional and National Comparisons 

South Tyneside’s population trends mirror those of the North East and England, though with some differences in scale. Between 2022 and 2047:
– South Tyneside’s total population is projected to grow by 5.0%, compared to 8.5% in the North East and 12.7% in England.
– The 0–19 population is expected to decline by 13.1% locally, versus 11.8% regionally and 6.8% nationally.
– The working-age population (20–64) is projected to grow by 5.7% in South Tyneside, compared to 8.4% in the North East and 12.2% in England.
– The 65+ population is expected to rise by 22.0% locally, compared to 30.4% regionally and 38.6% nationally. 

Components of Change: 2023–2024 

South Tyneside’s population in 2024 was estimated at 151,393—an increase of 0.8% from the previous year. This growth places the borough around the average for local authorities in England and Wales.

From mid-2021 to mid-2024, the population grew by 2.3%. However, there were more deaths than births in the latest year, resulting in a natural decrease of 477 people. Internal migration added 304 people, while international migration contributed a significant increase of 1,432 residents. 

Methodology Updates 

Recent revisions to the 2022 and 2023 mid-year estimates reflect improved data on migration. For international migration, the latest long-term estimates published in May 2025 were used. Internal migration figures now include data from NHS Personal Demographics Service and the Higher Education Statistics Agency.

As a result, population estimates for England and Wales were revised upward:
– Mid-2022: 60.3 million (up by 33,400 or 0.1%)
– Mid-2023: 61.1 million (up by 245,100 or 0.4%)